<scp>Ocean–atmosphere</scp> variability and drought in the insular Caribbean

The insular Caribbean experiences numerous climate and environmental hazards, including but not limited to hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, drought. While some hazards are well explored in scientific literature, drought is considered one of the neglected because lack studies focusing on its causes effects. This study identifies spatial distribution seasonal from 1950 2017, relationship with eastern Pacific (EP) central (CP) ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Meridional Mode (AMM). It brings a new perspective over region by dividing into Greater Antilles Bahamas (GA), Lesser (LA) compare role those three teleconnection patterns events larger versus smaller islands. We used an existing high-resolution atlas (4 km) based monthly estimates self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). Results indicate that there drying trend all seasonal-average scPDSI for both GA LA, more intense frequent occur LA. LA also widespread events, registering 12 years when mid-summer dry spell (MSD; July–August) had ?80% area, while registered only 2 MSD extensive. peak season AMM strongest positive correlation during April–November, NAO was slightly stronger correlated than July–November. For CP El Niño related December–July, between two types ENSO statistically significant. effort aims improve forecasts help better prepare prediction droughts.